Skip to content

Weekly Economic Update

February 19, 2019

HIRING IMPROVES IN APRIL
The Labor Department’s latest jobs report contained some good news: the private sector added 268,000 new jobs last month, and overall non-farm payrolls increased by 244,000 in April. The private sector hasn’t seen this much month-over-month job creation since February 2006, and the net gain of 244,000 jobs was the best since June 2010. The unemployment rate went up to 9.0% in April, but Wall Street rallied Friday after the report was released.1

PMI IndEX STRONG; SERVICE SECTOR INDEX SLIPS
Last week, the Institute for Supply Management released its April reports on the manufacturing and service sectors. While the manufacturing index came in at 60.4 – down slightly from March’s 61.2 – anything above 60 indicates a booming sector. The non-manufacturing index dropped to 52.8 from March’s 57.3 reading. Anything above 50 means growth, but the index hasn’t been this low in eight months.2

GOLD, SILVER & OIL PULL BACK
Are commodities overbought? That anxiety weighed on thees markets last week, and it was amplified by a strengthening dollar. Silver took the biggest hit, retreating 27.4% across five days to $35.28 an ounce at the Friday COMEX close. Gold lost 4.2% to end the week at $1,491.20 per ounce; copper sank 4.9% for the week, leaving it 14% under its February 14 record close on Friday. Oil slid 14.7% last week, all the way down to $97.18 per barrel at the Friday close; crude had its poorest week since mid-December of 2008.3,4

A VOLATILE WEEK SEES STOCKS RETREAT
Stocks rollercoastered a bit last week as closely watched indicators alternately came in positive and negative. By Friday’s close, the scorecard for May 3-6 looked like this: DJIA, -1.34% to 12,638.74; S&P 500, -1.72% to 1,340.20; NASDAQ, -1.60% to 2,827.56. (The “flash crash” occurred on May 6, 2010 – that’s why the 1-YR CHG column below shows such radical improvement this week.)5

THIS WEEK:
No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, we have a report on March wholesale inventories and 1Q earnings from Disney. On Wednesday, three Federal Reserve Bank presidents speak and 1Q earnings from Toyota, Symantec and Cisco arrive. Thursday, the April PPI is released and the newest reports on initial jobless claims arrive; we get the Census Bureau’s report on April retail sales along with 1Q earnings from three titans of the mall – Nordstrom, Macy’s and Kohl’s. Friday, we get April’s CPI and the University of Michigan’s initial consumer sentiment survey for May.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+9.17

+20.14

+1.83

+1.56

NASDAQ

+6.58

+21.90

+4.14

+3.01

S&P 500

+6.56

+18.80

+0.22

+0.61

REAL YIELD

5/6 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.71%

1.25%

2.45%

3.52%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 5/6/115,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

WEEKLY QUOTE

“That which seems the height of absurdity in one generation often becomes the height of wisdom in the next.”
– John Stuart Mill

WEEKLY TIP

If you have adult children living at home, do they pay rent? It can provide you with a source of extra income.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of John Jastremski, Jeremy Keating, Erik J Larsen, Frank Esposito, Patrick Ray, Robert Welsch, Michael Reese, Brent Wolf, Andy Starostecki and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

The Retirement Group is not affiliated with nor endorsed by fidelity.com, netbenefits.fidelity.com, hewitt.com, resources.hewitt.com, access.att.com, ING Retirement, AT&T, Qwest, Chevron, Hughes, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, ExxonMobil, Glaxosmithkline, Merck, Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Alcatel-Lucent or by your employer. We are an independent financial advisory group that specializes in transition planning and lump sum distribution. Please call our office at 800-900-5867 if you have additional questions or need help in the retirement planning process.

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/id/42928731/ [5/6/11]

2 – zacks.com/stock/news/52612/ISM+Service+Index+Disappoints [5/4/11]

3 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/06/silver-finishes-its-brutal-week-with-a-whimper/ [5/6/11]

4 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/06/data-points-energy-metals-489/ [5/6/11]

5 – cnbc.com/id/42935357 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=10&y=18 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/6/11]

7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/6/11]

8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]

9 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [5/8/11]

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: